Interesting Times

A recent poll published in the Times on voting intentions in Scotland on June 4th made for interesting reading. Whilst it showed an increase in support for fringe parties, these gains are unlikely to translate into a seat. The article focused on Labour's fears of an election catastrophe, and whilst the election may turn out to be just that elsewhere, I for one don't think that Labour will find themselves unseated in Scotland.

The poll quotes a senior Labour spokesperson as saying that there "is a lot of concern for us. We think we might manage to keep the second seat but it's going to be very close." Now by taking the projected vote as published, with the SNP on 37%, Labour on 25%, the Tories on 17% and the Lib Dems on 12%, and working that into an expected low turnout, the results couldn't be further from the truth. The turnout in 2004 was 30.9% mustering 1,176,817 voters, but in 1999 it was only 988,310 with a shoddy 24.7% showing up at the polls.

It is generally accepted that low turnout is to be expected, due in no small part to the expenses scandal. If we transpose the poll onto the 1999 turnout therefore, we see 435,422 votes to the SNP, 294,204 to Labour, 200,058 to the Conservatives and 141,218 to the Liberal Democrats. Under the d'Hondt method this would deliver the 1st seat to the SNP, the 2nd seat to Labour, the 3rd seat to the SNP, the 4th seat to the Tories, the 5th seat to Labour and the 6th seat to SNP.

The poll was correct on it's assertion, and on the basis of their projections, that the SNP could capture enough votes for 3 MEPs. However in order for Labour to lose Catherine Stihler MEP, either Labour would have to hemorrhage a significant number of voters to the Lib Dems, there would need to be an enormous swing to the SNP, or a much larger than expected turnout. All of the above are somewhat unlikely, if you want my very humble opinion, it's George Lyon and the Liberal Democrats who should be considering a plan B.

I think that the allocation of seats in Northern Ireland will be all the more interesting. Sinn Fein essentially unseated the SDLP in 2004, as they had been anticipated to do, to take what is seen as the Nationalist seat at Brussels. They may see their political fortunes in Northern Ireland revived further. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who have been the strongest Unionist party in Ulster for over a decade, may see their fortunes decline somewhat due in no small part to Jim Allister MEP, the man whom they selected as a candidate to replace Ian Paisley in the European Parliament. He left the party and formed Traditional Unionist Voice in 2007, over his anger at power-sharing agreements agreed to by the DUP and Sinn Fein, “No power sharing with terrorists” is his motto. Once loyal DUP voters could vote for a man whom they have seen work hard for them in Brussels, thus splitting the vote. To add salt to the wound, the Ulster Unionist Party, tired of seeing their fortunes wane, have forged an alliance with the Conservative party and David Cameron, giving them a stronger voice, and making them more electable.

Whilst this may give the DUP cause for concern, as the Irish Times shows, neither Jim Allister or the UUP are likely to garner more votes than the DUP's candidate, Diane Dodds. However Northern Ireland politics are a partisan affair, and there are only so many unionist votes, just as there are only so many nationalist votes. The effect of this, and my prediction, will be to split the unionist vote, which could result in Sinn Fein winning the first seat, the DUP the second, and the SDLP the third. After all they lost out to the UUP for third place by only 4,000 votes in 2004. This would be the first time in Northern Ireland that nationalists have topped the polls, and profess a total sea-change in Northern Irish demographics.