Originally published in Swedish at www.makthavare.se
Thursday 5th May 2011 was an historic day. The SNP won the Scottish Parliamentary elections, winning not just a second term in office, but also the parliament’s first majority government since it’s foundation in 1999. The parliament holds power over such areas as education, health and justice while matters of defence, social security and foreign affairs are reserved to the Westminster parliament. Scotland has maintained a separate legal system even after becoming a part of Great Britain in 1707 and in that sense a Scottish legislative body was long overdue. Labour’s thinking was that the Scottish parliament “would kill nationalism stone dead” but in 2007 the SNP surged to a surprise victory and were able to form a minority government. 4 years later and the party have won 69 out of 129 seats. This is nothing short of a political landslide. The Scottish National Party can now assert themselves as the national party of Scotland.
The party was founded in the 30’s but it wasn’t until the early 70’s that the party saw any tangible success. Since then they have had continuous representation in the Westminster parliament, and have sat in both the European and Scottish parliaments since their inception. In order to challenge the dominance of the Labour party in Scotland the party has broadly adopted a social democratic stance supporting progressive taxation, free education, and aside, Scottish independence. However it cannot be compared with the British National Party. The party supports immigration to Scotland, seeing Scottish nationality not as a matter of race but of identity. Indeed the first muslim representative to the Scottish parliament, the late Bashir Ahmad was elected for the party. Their heartland of the agricultural areas of the North East of Scotland warrants a strong support of enterprise. One of their first moves as a minority government was to reduce taxes on small business. Their best comparator in Sweden therefore is probably the Centre party.
Why were the party so successful this time around? Their first term saw a freeze on council tax which coincided with a reduction in the disposable income of voters. This was obviously a very popular measure, and can be compared with the popularity of the Alliance’s Job Tax Deduction. Scottish unemployment has also began to fall at the same time as it continues to rise across Great Britain, with the party taking most of the credit. Labour’s decision to fight a negative campaign, to use Gordon Brown as a campaign heavyweight, and mount a campaign more against the Tories than against the SNP backfired. It associated them with their previous failures. The Liberal Democrat and Conservative parties were hurt by the Westminster coalition government’s unpopular austerity measures. All of these other parties lost seats to the SNP, with just the Scottish Green party holding onto the same 2 seats that they held in 2007.
With a clear majority, a referendum on Scottish independence, a dream of the party since their inception, will be tabled. What is of course unclear is which way this would swing. A vote for the SNP doesn’t necessarily equal a vote for an independent Scotland, and turnout at such a referendum could be much higher. It is now entirely plausible however, that Scotland could become a sovereign nation within the decade, something unthinkable just a few years ago. It is clear that the political climate in Great Britain is different. Whilst Labour lost the election, the Liberal Democrats were politically bankrupt. Both of the parties’ Scottish leaders have been forced to resign, and Vince Cable, a senior Liberal Democrat and the coalition Business Secretary has attacked the Tories as “ruthless and calculating” in an attempt to distance the party from the association that plagued it. This will most likely prove ineffective, and dissent against the leader of the party, Nick Clegg, from within is rising. He may also be forced to resign, or bid a tactical retreat from the coalition. This would put the Conservatives in a weak position, could lead to a hung parliament and an early general election. Speculation it may be, but it gives an understanding of how big an upset this election was for the traditional heavyweights of British politics.
